Report: Delinquency Rate Continues to Plunge
BY: ASHLEY R. HARRIS 11/13/2013
Homeowners are working harder to make timely mortgage payments, according recent data from TransUnion . The mortgage delinquency rate dropped 23.3 percent in the past year, ending Q3 2013 at 4.09 percent. Last year it stood at 5.33 percent. The mortgage delinquency rate also dropped on a quarterly basis, down 5.3 percent from 4.32 percent in Q2 2013, the seventh straight quarterly decline.
Around the United States, most states experienced a decline in their mortgage delinquency rate between Q3 2012 and Q3 2013. California, Arizona, Nevada, Colorado, and Utah experienced more than 30 percent declines in their mortgage delinquency rate. Three states—California, Florida, and Nevada—had double-digit percentage drops in the last quarter.
TransUnion cultivated the data from anonymized credit data from virtually every credit-active consumer in the United States. TransUnion’s forecast is based on various economic assumptions, such as gross state product, consumer sentiment, unemployment rates, real personal income, and real estate values. The forecast would change if there are unanticipated shocks to the economy affecting recovery in the housing market or if home prices begin to depreciate once again.
“This isn’t a sample data set,” said Tim Martin, group VP of U.S. Housing for TransUnion’s financial services business unit.
“We looked at all 52 million installment-based mortgages in the U.S. and the trend is clear—the percentage of borrowers willing and able to make their mortgage payments continues to improve,” Martin continued. “The overall delinquency rate is still high relative to ‘normal,’ but a 23 percent year over year improvement is great news for homeowners and their lenders.”
The credit agency recorded 52.31 million mortgage accounts as of Q3 2013, down from 54.23 million in Q3 2012. This variable was as high as 63.14 million in Q3 2008 prior to the housing crisis.
Viewed one quarter in arrears (to ensure all accounts are included in the data), new account originations increased to 2.34 million in Q2 2013, up from 2.09 million in Q2 2012. This is a major increase from just two years ago when there were 1.32 million new account originations in Q2 2010.
“New mortgage originations showed good growth through the second quarter of this year, largely the result of increased refinance transactions driven by low rates and increasing home prices,” Martin said. “However, mortgage rates started to increase right around Memorial Day, and when the data come out next quarter, we expect it to show that new originations are decreasing as a result.”
TransUnion’s latest mortgage report also found that the non-prime population (those consumers with a VantageScore credit score lower than 700) continues to represent a smaller portion of all mortgage loans, more than 50 percent lower than was observed in 2007. Non-prime borrowers constituted 5.82 percent of all new mortgage originations in Q2 2013. In Q2 2008, non-prime borrowers represented 12.69 percent of the total.
TransUnion is forecasting that the downward consumer delinquency trend will continue in the final three months of 2013. The delinquency rate will likely be just under 4 percent at the end of the year.
“New originations will be down and non-prime borrowers will start to re-emerge,” Martin said. “At this point we believe delinquency rates will continue to decline.”
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